NEPSE Index Surges 3.43% in a Resilient Weekly Performance, Market Turnover Exceeds NPR 30 Billion

The Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE) concluded the trading week on a strong bullish note, registering a significant gain of 87.73 points, or 3.43%, to close at 2,647.22. This impressive performance marks a notable rebound from the previous week's decline of 0.66%, signaling renewed investor confidence and a shift in market sentiment. The week witnessed heightened activity, with the index fluctuating between a high of 2,679.90 and a low of 2,556.90, resulting in a volatility of 123 points—a substantial increase compared to the 53.88 points observed in the preceding week. This expanded volatility suggests increased participation and dynamic price discovery across the market.

Total market turnover for the week reached an impressive NPR 30.61 billion (30.61 Arba), indicating robust liquidity and active trading. The highest intraday gain was recorded on Tuesday, with the index climbing 48.57 points on a turnover of NPR 8.29 billion. Over 81.9 million unit shares were traded through 299,574 transactions during the week, underscoring the broad-based engagement of investors. The current market capitalization of NEPSE stands at a staggering NPR 4,553.56 billion (45.53 Kharba), reflecting the overall value of listed companies and the growing size of Nepal's equity market.

From a technical analysis perspective, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading is at 59.81, suggesting that the market is approaching overbought territory in the short term but still has room for upward movement. Conversely, the weekly RSI stands at 48.17, indicating that while the short-term momentum is strong, the longer-term trend is still in a neutral-to-recovering phase. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below zero, with the signal line also in the negative zone at -3.97. This suggests that despite the recent gains, the underlying longer-term momentum is still building from a bearish phase, and investors should remain cautious. However, the NEPSE Index trading above both its 20-day and 5-day Exponential Moving Averages is a strong short-term bullish signal, indicating positive momentum. For the upcoming sessions, the 2,570 level is expected to act as immediate support, while the 2,750 zone will pose a significant resistance challenge for further upward movement.

One of the most encouraging aspects of the week's performance was the broad-based rally across all sectors. Every sector index closed in the green, demonstrating widespread positive sentiment and a lack of concentrated gains in just a few segments. This indicates a healthy market environment where value is being recognized across various industries. Investors seeking higher volatility and potential returns turned their attention to high-beta stocks, with Mailung Khola Jal Vidhyut Company Limited (MKJC), Rasuwagadhi Hydropower Company Limited (RHPL), and Chilime Hydropower Company Limited (CHCL) leading the pack with betas of 4.556, 3.716, and 3.131, respectively. These stocks tend to amplify market movements, offering higher upside potential but also increased risk.

Among individual stocks, Infinity Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Limited (ILBS) emerged as the top gainer, closing at NPR 1,065 with an impressive increase of NPR 195 (22.41%). On the other end, Hathway Investment Nepal Limited saw its price decrease by 17.93%, closing at NPR 499.00. In terms of trading activity, Reliance Spinning Mills Limited (RSML) was the top-traded company, with shares worth NPR 1.06 billion changing hands, highlighting significant investor interest and liquidity in the stock. Brokerage activity also provided insights into market dynamics, with Naasa Securities Co. Ltd. (Broker No.- 58) leading both buying and selling, purchasing stocks worth NPR 2.33 billion and selling stocks worth NPR 1.32 billion. This indicates a highly active role for this particular brokerage firm in the week's trading.

Overall, the past week has been a period of strong recovery and renewed optimism for the NEPSE market. The significant index gain, coupled with high turnover and broad-based sector performance, suggests a positive shift in investor sentiment. While technical indicators like MACD still point to a longer-term recovery phase, the short-term bullish signals are clear. Investors will be closely watching the market's ability to sustain this momentum and breach key resistance levels in the coming weeks.